Better by the day

Here comes summer.

The fundamental shift in the upper air pattern I've been looking for and Minnesotans have been waiting for is on the way later this week.

Our northwest flow has been courtesy of the persistent James Bay upper low which has been largely stuck in place since mid-January. Result? 4 months below average in Minnesota.

Later this week this high amplitude pattern shifts east, and that puts a ridge of high pressure and a southerly low level flow right smack dab over Minnesota. The result should be the first prolonged stretch of above average temps for Minnesota in 4 months.

We came up just short of our first 80 in the metro Friday, but it looks to this forecaster like we will nail it down by this weekend. In fact we'll have a shot at 80 Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the metro. The upper ridge builds over Iowa and Missouri Saturday, and temps could approach 90 there by the weekend.

This should be a great Memorial Day weekend. While I don't expect the searing 97 degree heat of two years ago, it looks to be nice and warm with upper 70's north and lower 80's south this weekend. Perhaps this is our reward for so many chilly days the past few months.

So far through May we are running 2.2 degrees below average. We'll return to average by Thursday, then make a run at trying to even the month our in the final 10 days.

It has been a dry run the past week, and soils in parts of northwest Minnesota are still a bit dry. Fire danger there remains high as well.

Watch, and enjoy, as our weather gets better each day this week!

PH