Pattern change ahead

This is the time of the year when I like to look a little more closely at the medium range forecast models. You see, we've been stuck in this cold rut since our early January thaw, and I like to see when the overall "big picture" upper air pattern will shift again, brining in warmer air.

Yesterday, I think I found it.

As we begin to climb out of the deep freeze over the next 24 hours, a pattern shift is emerging that leads to a couple of likely events.

1) Our upper air flow shifts from the Canadian arctic to the Pacific. This is a critical directional shift in the upper winds that will bring in milder air. Today looks like it will be the last sub-zero morning in southern Minnesota for about a week if not longer. And if we do dip below zero in the next 2 weeks, it may be just below zero for an hour or two, not 10 or 15 below.

2) The storm track returns. The storm track has favored heavy snows for Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota for much of the winter. They have seen more than 40 inches of snow. The Twin Cities has seen only about 20 inches. That may change, and after a chance of light snow from the Twin Cities north Friday night, the first chance for heavy wet snow in the metro and much of central and northern Minnesota emerges next Monday into Tuesday.

A classic "panhandle hook" storm is taking shape for next Monday. It's too early to say where it will go or how much snow may come our way, but we could be plowing in parts of Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Stay tuned, and enjoy the milder air as we move well into the 20's Friday and this weekend.