It’s not your imagination.

Of the “big three” holiday weekends in Minnesota, Memorial Day weekend is climatologically the wettest. In fact, we are now on the cusp of the peak of severe weather season in Minnesota.

Memorial Day and the Fourth of July bracket “peak severe season,” according to storm reports flowing into the Twin Cities National Weather Service.

Twin Cities National Weather Service

Why so wet on Memorial Day weekend?

This time of year the jet stream typically transitions north into Canada for summer. As the jet stream slides north through Minnesota, weather systems track overhead.

The contrast between soon to arrive warm and sticky air masses to the south, and drier spring Canadian air masses to the north trigger soggy lows that ride by. Memorial Day weekend is prime time for soaking late spring rains as we transition to summer at the 45th parallel north.

Yes, you have a much better statistical chance of a dry sunny picnic on Labor Day.

Twin Cities NWS

Here’s the weather culprit for more scattered rain on a holiday weekend.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

We may sneak through most of Saturday dry, but by Saturday night green blobs light up the Doppler.

Sunday looks like the highest coverage on radar, a few hours of rain possible. Memorial Day could bring enough energy to spawn a few borderline severe cells. Dew points climb to the noticeably humid 60 degree mark by Monday.

NOAA Global Forecast System model output, via Weatherspark

A shot at 80 next week?

Summer creeps in on cats’ paws, or something like that. We have a shot at 80 degrees next week as a warmer air mass slips in from the south. A look ahead.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Weatherspark

North Minneapolis tornado four years ago

It could be worse. May 22 marks four years since the North Minneapolis tornado tore a path from St. Louis Park into north Minneapolis.

Twin Cities NWS

The twister caused significant EF1 damage. Here’s more from the Twin Cities NWS.

May 22, 2015 is the 4th anniversary of the North Minneapolis EF1 tornado, as well as EF0 tornadoes near Ham Lake and Forest Lake, Minnesota and an EF1 tornado near Brill, Wisconsin.

During the early afternoon of Sunday May 22nd, a line of thunderstorms developed across south central Minnesota, and quickly moved north and northeast across east-central Minnesota, and into west-central Wisconsin.

One spawned a tornado in North Minneapolis, and crossed into southern Anoka County. One person was killed when a tree fell on a vehicle, and 48 people were injured.

Another tornado occurred near Ham Lake, and another near Forest Lake that afternoon. A fourth tornado touched down near Brill, Wisconsin.

Twin Cities NWS

Winds of 100 to 110 mph were produced by the tornado that hit north Minneapolis…St. Louis Park…Golden Valley…Fridley…Mounds View and Blaine. It was on the ground for six and one quarter miles in Hennepin County…plus an additional eight miles across Anoka and

Ramsey counties as the tornado went through parts of Fridley…Mounds View…and Blaine.

The total path length was 14 and 1/4 miles. The tornado was about 1/2 mile wide at its widest point. The time of touchdown was approximately 215 pm…but this will be fine tuned in the days to come as more evidence is gathered. According to various security cameras…the tornado moved into Fridley at 222 pm.

The initial touchdown in St. Louis Park was 3/4 of a mile south-southwest of the intersection of Interstate 394 and Highway 100 where two businesses sustained roof damage. The tornado moved northeast…crossing Highway 100 where it hit the first residences along Cedar Lake Road.

It then entered the southeast portion of Golden Valley…crossed Interstate 394 and headed for Theodore Wirth Park. During this time it took a bit of a northward turn and began moving to the north-northeast.

The updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin the remainder of this Sunday afternoon and into tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop, and a few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight.  An isolated tornado is also possible. We will keep Read more

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has much of Minnesota and Wisconsin in an enhanced severe weather risk category this Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Plenty of moist air is in place, and breaks in the cloud cover should further destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon. Severe thunderstorms, and even a few tornadoes, will be possible this afternoon and this Read more