The odds of a white Christmas in Minnesota just went up.

Way up.

I’ve been talking about a developing low pressure system early next week for a few days now. The latest models runs, and shifts in some larger atmospheric “oscillations” suggest next week’s storm could deepen and become a significant snow maker for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Just in time for pre Christmas travel.


Quiet for now

The short-term forecast calls for more of the same. More clouds. More gray. More degrees on your local bank thermometer. High pressure slides east, and southerly winds will boost temperatures into the 30s the next few days.

Some very light moisture riding north could trigger patches of freezing drizzle this weekend at night as warmer air aloft slides over sub-freezing air near the ground.


Temperatures thaw during the day this weekend. We may melt some more snow — for a while. Then the main body of the next system moves in late Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. Travel problems are look increasingly likely Monday and Tuesday.


The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model runs are deepening Monday’s system, and paint a deeper low pressure near the Quad Cities by Monday evening.

Montreal Weather Centre

The Global Forecast System is on board with the changes. It’s way too early to talk totals, but travel impacts and the potential for several inches of snow across Minnesota and western Wisconsin are looking increasingly likely.

Here’s a look at GFS snowfall output from Thursday afternoon’s (18z) model run.

NOAA via

The GFS model run is cranking out the potential for several inches in the Twin Cities Monday night into Tuesday.

Iowa State University

Bottom Line: Snow, wind and travel impacts are looking increasingly likely Monday and Tuesday of Christmas week. Stay tuned as we track development on the potential for a developing winter storm.