The odds of a white Christmas in Minnesota just went up.
I’ve been talking about a developing low pressure system early next week for a few days now. The latest models runs, and shifts in some larger atmospheric “oscillations” suggest next week’s storm could deepen and become a significant snow maker for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.
Just in time for pre Christmas travel.
Quiet for now
The short-term forecast calls for more of the same. More clouds. More gray. More degrees on your local bank thermometer. High pressure slides east, and southerly winds will boost temperatures into the 30s the next few days.
Some very light moisture riding north could trigger patches of freezing drizzle this weekend at night as warmer air aloft slides over sub-freezing air near the ground.
Temperatures thaw during the day this weekend. We may melt some more snow — for a while. Then the main body of the next system moves in late Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday. Travel problems are look increasingly likely Monday and Tuesday.
The Global Forecast System is on board with the changes. It’s way too early to talk totals, but travel impacts and the potential for several inches of snow across Minnesota and western Wisconsin are looking increasingly likely.
Here’s a look at GFS snowfall output from Thursday afternoon’s (18z) model run.
I’ve been talking with MPR Climate Cast contributor University of St. Thomas Professor John Abraham this week about what it will take for 2014 to “officially” be declared the warmest year on record globally. John is at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco this week. John and I traded data including the National Oceanic and Read more →
It’s the perennial December question in Minnesota. A blanket of white by December 25th this year has looked touch and go for a couple of weeks. Looking at next week’s maps, the odds of a white Christmas appear to be about 50/50 as we approach one week until Christmas Eve. Read more →
We’re not used standing water on top of ice on our usually solidly frozen 10,000 lakes in mid December. Green grass and golfers on a mid-December weekend? That’s a little unnerving for many Minnesotans. Read more →
An incoming low pressure system brings a rain-to-snow scenario Monday. Rain will change to snow in western Minnesota Monday afternoon, and in the metro from west to east between 8 and 10 pm Monday night. Read more →
Gray…but milder That’s the trade off in winter in Minnesota. When it’s cold it’s usually sunny. Pining for December thaw? Plan on gray skies and fog. Yes, the shortest days of the year are upon us. The good news? The days start getting longer a week from Monday after the winter solstice, which occurs at 5:03 p.m. Read more →