Our weather pattern across the Upper Midwest is stuck in bliss mode for now. The same hemispheric blocking pattern that has stalled weather systems across North America continues to bring sunshine and easterly winds under the back edge of cool Canadian high pressure this weekend. The large high centered over Hudson Bay is keeping rain systems stalled over the east coast and Rockies, with Minnesota in between.
Here’s the breakdown for the next week. More sunny days and a gradual warming trend next week. The next hint if rain hold off until at least Wednesday.
As forecast models continue to grapple for consensus on the eventual track of Hurricane Joaquin, there is a growing trend. Most of the models seem to be coming more into agreement with the ECMWF model’s notion of an easterly track that keeps the powerful and dangerous hurricane out to sea and away from the US coastline. It’s still too early to be sure the US will avoid a direct hit from Joaquin, but a distinct shift in that direction has occurred. Read more →
Weather forecast confidence grows when the most trusted forecast models cluster around one outcome. In the forecasting game we call numerical weather prediction, ensemble mean forecasts from a suite of (many) models usually produce a better output than one single reliable forecast model. Read more →
Today’s cool front brings a few scattered showers as it sags south. Cooler, more seasonal Canadian high pressure noses south into Minnesota this week and bumps temperatures back to reality. Read more →