Economy Does the recession feel over to you? Eric Ringham September 21, 2010, 5:00 AM Sep 21, 2010 29 comments A group of economists on Monday declared that the recent recession lasted 18 months and ended in June of 2009. Today’s Question: Does the recession feel over to you? ‹ Older Should the state’s investment in public colleges and universities be greater or smaller? Newer › How do you see the Tea Party evolving after the current election season? Browse by category Education Health Economy Politics/Government Culture Religion/Ethics Science/Technology Transportation Race/Gender Environment/Energy Security International affairs Immigration Media Military About the blogger Eric Ringham firstname.lastname@example.org Dianne The recession does not feel over to me, because the recession includes more than business recovery. It must also include restoring to health the persons who lost jobs, homes, and hope during the recession. Health of the community is more important than the health of the business sector, and it is a better indicator of a healthy economy. Sue Ann It feels as if we are in a slow recovery from a more serious illness than we thought we had. April The recession will feel over to me once my husband can get a job, & I feel safe in quitting what is undoubtedly the worst job I’ve ever had. As of now, though, the recession is still alive & well in my life. Steve the Cynic We expect too much. The “recession is over,” by definition, when the GDP stops going down and starts edging up again. It’ll be a while before it gets back to where it was before the real estate bubble burst and the banking system seized up. But the crash happened in the first place because the economy was overheated, being fueled by too much consumer debt and too-easy-to-get mortgages, and being pushed along by a n under-regulated banking system where profits were privatized and losses socialized. In other words, before the Great Recession, the economy was too good. Our long-term well-being depends on learning to be content when we have enough. I’m not expecting that will happen any time soon. J Just this month I got a job via the “Legacy Amendment” after 1+ year of trying. This has definately improved my outlook and restored a bit of that good ol’ American optimism … until I listen to the news. Gary F Not sure what the technicalities of what they are calling a “recession”? Have we stopped falling? Maybe, Will it get started again? I hope so. Both at the national and state level, I see no incentive for anyone to take a risk with their money or business. Taxes and regulation is going up with Obamacare. The Obama Regime will allow taxes to go back up by letting the current income tax rules expire. They have already floated the trial balloon of a Value Added Tax. They have tried to pass Cap and Tax. They want to pass card check, which takes away the secret union ballot and puts more power into the hands of unions. Statewide, Mark Dayton, wants to tax the job creating class more, thus taking more money that would go to another shift, another service truck, another building, another salesperson, etc. Increasing taxes will not lead to private sector growth. There is no reason or incentive to risk your money with today’s poor business climate. Philip Not yet. The press keeps reminding me it’s still there, so it must be. jamex off topic, but… gary f: I get the feeling that if your orange juice tasted bad, you’d blame it on Obama & Dayton. Gary F Oh, and locally, Dayton’s plan to soak the rich only covers about half of the projected deficit, so he’s promised too much new government spending and not enough taxes. He’s coming after everyone. Be glad you are out of the recession. James My work builds products for precious metal mining and oil exploration. I have been here for 14 years, in that time sales have increased 4X with a 10% increase in employees. I have had 9 “pay increases” (sub cost of living) and two 10% pay cuts (due to slowdowns). The business is doing VERY well in this economy, I feel lucky to be employed, however it would be nice to share some of the success. Times are so good that our backlog of sales has put me one 50 hour weeks…. That would be great if I was not salaried. DTOM Jenn It doesn’t seem over to me. My small business is failing due to the recession. I was able to hang on through 2008 & 2009, but this last year has all but wiped us out. I will probably have to shut down before 2011. I guess it depends on the definition. Sure, we’ve stopped falling, but it doesn’t seem like we’ve started climbing out again yet. Tony I don’t have a lot of respect for economists. I never read a headline that says “Once again, economists nailed it dead-on.” I do read headlines that say things like “economists were surprised by…” or “….worse than economists had predicted…” The recession is not over. If a recession means to recede, in other words to go backwards, then it’s possible that as a nation we’ve stopped going backwards economically. But we sure haven’t gone forwards. The recession killed a huge number of jobs, and they’re still gone. A pointy-headed academic measuring GDP and declaring the recession over because his line-on-a-grid economics training told him “when it looks like thus, then the recession is over” doesn’t mean very much. Such folks are the same folks who denied we were in a recession until a year later, even though everyone else already knew it was so. Recession is, like everything else, all about people. When the people are sound again, then the recession will be over. We’re not sound yet. The jobs are still gone. steve no not really money is tight and little things like a latte and chocolate are luxuries-my wife and i work really hard and are just surviving-we do have a nice house in the park with great schools and i love the inner lakes for running, but we forgo many things! Mary No it doesn’t feel like we’re out of a recession. There are still too many people who had good jobs that are out of work. Most of the people I know who are getting jobs are taking jobs that are in no way comperable to the jobs they had lost. They are still looking at saying good bye to their homes. Mary I think it’s odd that we define “recession” as a continuation of economic downslide. If we slide into the toilet, we’re in the toilet until we get out. We’re not out yet. Maybe broadcasting that the recession is over will help people to feel more hope, and feeling more hopeful, maybe investments and spending will become more vigorous. But I think we also need to develop more industry in this country, as our labor market currently cannot compete with that of foreign nations where the standard of living is so much more conservative. Shane No. Just because a bunch of economists say it doesn’t make it true. BIG Only if FOXNEWS tells me it is. I cannot think for myself so I rely on conservative TV to tell me everything. Clark What recession? If you have cash and a high income the past two years have been fantastic. Steve the Cynic For all those who pine for the good old days of 2007, who perhaps lost “good paying” jobs that haven’t come back, please remember that the seemingly good economy of those days was unsustainable, which is why it wasn’t sustained. The policy mistakes that brought us to that point were made in the ’90s and ’00s, when deregulation was taken too far and businesses (primarily the banking system, but not exclusively) became insufficiently risk-averse. Unless we learn to be content with slow economic growth that sustainably provides enough for everyone, we’ll be back on the boom-and-bust rollercoaster economy that was typical up until the Great Depression and the New Deal. As long as we demand a quick return to boom times, we’re in for a wild ride. Stifling growth is not a bad thing, if the growth is cancerous. Khatti Well I rejoined the ranks of the employed again, started work last Wednesday, but I can’t say the recession feels over. I do think that we’ll slowly get jobs back, and then we’ll get busy in those jobs, and, suddenly long after the fact, we’ll realize the recession is over. I doubt that time is coming soon though. The interesting question will be: “Are we going to do things differently once the Recession is over?” That I really don’t know. Matt Having finally gone from a single-income family back to a dual-income family I certainly feel much better about the economy. I hope the trend continues until we reach economic sustainability, as opposed to continual economic growth at the cost of all else. Mark B. If the recession can be over, but job losses grow and family income and net worth continue to decline, then the term ‘recession’ is irrelevant. Greg YES. After 14 months unemployed (Feb 2009-May 2010) I was hired full-time in my field (healthcare finance). I had to move back to Minnesota, from beautiful San Diego, CA, but the job prospects in S. Cal were bleak to none. 5 months back in Minnesota, and got my own place to live, a car, and a great, challenging job! I know it’s tough out there, but it sure feels like the recession is over to me. Keep your chin up (for all you unemployed) Keep plugging away, there is HOPE! Kevin Well before the Snobbish rich people start feeling all cozzy and start hiring people, part of why Trickle down is a JOKE…… We will not see much at the bottom. Its a numbers game, there is enough to show the arrow is pointing to better times ahead, it does not mean right NOW its good for all. Much like how we were slated to end the deficit during Clinton’s years as president, and we had a great economy during those years. The arrow was we were paying it down little by little until it would have been paid in 2012…. Then along came Bush baby, college drop out, Military Dodger (Treatment of drugs incase wondering), and absent president (968 days on vacation during his 8 years as president, thats 3 years if you have trouble with math)…. He decided since his limited understanding of the deficit was OVER already (wrong, working its way down, but not paid yet) to aim a HUGE tax cut to the richest 2 % of americans. Granted he also included a lot of middle class in that as well, but the biggest winners were the rich. This is why some republicans realize they need to end that tax cut to the richest 2 % of america, its not like they will miss it anyway and when so many are suffering due to it. Now the whole loan and bank crisis stemming from the Housing market which all 3 also saw laws and regulations changed DURING bush to allow for more ‘questionable’ practices took a long time to snowball. And it hit DURING Bush Baby’s 2nd term, a year before it was even over we started to see problems. Part of why Obama got elected was to change what was wrong. Since he has been in office we have seen EVERY SINGLE move attack countered, watered down, and otherwise no where near where it needs to be. Still it is having its positive effects. Eventually if we are allowed to continue to correct the errors of BUSH baby then maybe we will not end up worse then it is now. In my job searches the job terms are longer if not permanent which is what I am looking for. Its starting, but like any road we have just turn the corner to the correct path to the destination we want. Dick Saunders ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!! Unfortunately, our economy must deflate significantly prior to a rebound. We can thank Alan Greenspan for our troubles! C For me the “recession” just got started this month – when I got layed off from my job. To the so-called economists, easy for you to say the “recession” is over. When you drive your BMW’s to work every day. Off topic: Dayton is partly right in the tax-the-rich. Rather he should say, hire workers and pay them or else pay an equivalent tax. If the rich say, there’s no work for them to do. There is ALWAYS work that needs to get done. I’m living proof of that. They’re just too greedy and would rather buy a new luxury car or a bigger boat than provide jobs. ben In a word ‘NO’. Those economists should be fired, either for Incompetence or Lying I don’t know or care which they are. I don’t know Anybody personally who is better off or even as good now than they were a few years ago. This sounds like George W Bush standing in front of the ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner at the ‘START’ of the Iraq war. Pure Political BS for the fall elections consumption. Cheryl No, the recession isn’t over. People I know are nervous – there’s no sense of security or continuity anywhere. Gas station prices rise wildly (20 cents or more) overnight, and then drop 2 or 3 cents at a time for a couple of weeks, and then go up wildly again overnight. Why? No one knows – but it’s very unsettling. No one is getting raises, or if they do get a raise it is 1% or 2% – certainly not enough to keep up with the cost of living increases – so their “raises” are really not. People who still have jobs are not sure they’ll have them tomorrow. 4 people in my extended family have lost their jobs in the last 18 months. Their COBRA benefits are about to run out and there’s no way they can afford the full cost of their health insurance premiums. I know 2 people who lost jobs, found new jobs, but are earning less than half of what they earned before. These 2 people are age 40+ and 50+ and have been working all their lives. Both have had to file bankruptcy and one of them walked away from a mortgage. They are both pretty sure they’ll never again earn what they were earning before this recession. Nice motivation to keep working hard and playing by the rules, isn’t it? (NOT) The bail out money given to banks and Wall Street makes us furious. The people who got us into this giant mess are the ones who walked away with the cash, and the rest of us are SUFFERING. American Dream? No more. Kassie Way to go on this essay, hlpeed a ton.