Baby steps and the price of your home

Times are good again — sort of — for homeowners. The latest Case Shiller survey of home resale prices — covering January — showed every major city making gains over a year ago. In Minneapolis, housing prices are up over 12% in the last year, although they dropped slightly from December.

You’ve probably noticed something different when you received your property valuation tax statement in the last week or so; the market price of your home for 2014 likely went up.

What’s particularly fascinating is the recovery some cities have made, even though they reached the bottom of their housing market very late. Atlanta, Tampa Bay , and areas of the southeast didn’t hit bottom until last spring, while many major cities hit bottom in 2011 (Minneapolis is among those cities). Chicago didn’t reach the low point until one year ago. For many of these cities, however, while it was a long, slow fall to the depths, they’ve recovered at almost the same pace as some other cities which started their recoveries a year earlier.

Exceptions include Charlotte. When the banking industry collapsed, Charlotte — a banking city — took a hit from which it’s still staggers.

Here’s how cities compare from the current housing prices, to the prices when they reached the bottom of the housing collapse.

City
Difference from bottom
Phoenix
26.4%
San Francisco
25.3%
Detroit
24.1%
Minneapolis
18.1%
Atlanta
17.4%
Las Vegas
15.8%
Los Angeles
13.1%
San Diego
13.1%
Washington
12.9%
Miami
12.1%
Denver
11.6%
Seattle
9.5%
Tampa
9.1%
Chicago
8.6%
Portland
8.6%
Dallas
7.0%
Cleveland
6.2%
Charlotte
6.0%
Boston
4.5%
New York
2.7%

But, there’s still a long, long way to go. This table shows a much clearer indication of just how far some homeowners tumbled. Surprisingly, two cities are already almost back to where they were when the housing bubble burst.

City
Difference from peak
Phoenix
-79.5%
Las Vegas
-55.7%
Miami
-45.3%
Tampa
-43.2%
Detroit
-37.0%
San Diego
-34.8%
Los Angeles
-34.2%
Chicago
-33.8%
San Francisco
-32.5%
Atlanta
-28.4%
Minneapolis
-27.0%
Washington
-25.1%
New York
-25.1%
Portland
-24.5%
Seattle
-23.2%
Cleveland
-18.8%
Boston
-15.7%
Charlotte
-15.3%
Dallas
-4.6%
Denver
-4.4%

  • David G

    I guess I’m missing out on that: my estimated market value for 2014 dropped another $5,000.

  • jon

    according to zillow I’m at ~50% of the peak value of my home.

    though since I bought my home 4 years ago (at about 50% of it’s value from the peak) it’s been flat… some ups and downs… but the general trend is flat.

    Flat is fine by me. I’ve got a place to live, my mortgage is less then the zillow rent estimate (and about equal to an apartments rent in the area).

    benefit over renting is I have some equity built up (some of it sweat that zillow doesn’t know about, some of it just that the house hasn’t put me upside down)

  • Disco

    Be wary of the zestimate. It can be wrong by 10-20% in some neighborhoods.

  • Pat

    Jon, I wouldn’t go by Zillow. In our neighborhood there isn’t a single data point correct beyond the street name. The house numbering and data on the houses appears to be completely random. It has no correlation to what is there in any way shape or form. Literally. Your county’s GIS and property information systems are a better guide. Their values lag the market but are a good indication.

  • Kevin Watterson

    My value is going to have to have septuplets if it hopes to recover using baby steps.