There’s plenty of analysis coming elsewhere on the website about the new congressional district maps, but the story is the east metro pairing of Michele Bachmann and Betty McCollum. And here’s a quick snapshot of why Bachmann apparently has no intention of running against McCollum.
In the redistricting, Bachmann lost her most ardent supporters, who are now in the “new” Sixth.
Here’s the “new 4th” that pits Bachmann vs. McCollum:
Check out the results from the 2010 House races in the east metro in which Bachmann defeated Taryl Clark. The deeper the shade of red or blue, the stronger the support for the Republican or Democrat, respectively. While still leaning Republican, it’s never really warmed to Mrs. Bachmann.
Assuming McCollum maintains her support in Saint Paul and the inner ring, Bachmann would have had to significantly increase her support in the suburbs east of Saint Paul to have a shot at unseating the DFLer.
It’s not that kind of GOP turf. Communities like Woodbury and other Washington County cities voted for Barack Obama in 2008, even while supporting a much-more-moderate-than-Bachmann Norm Coleman in the U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, Bachmann’s “old” district gave McCain the strongest showing he had in Minnesota.
But while supporting Coleman in that election, Bachmann’s new “stronghold” didn’t support Bachmann:
2006 wasn’t much better…
It’s not impossible for a Republican to win in the 4th, but the Republican strength in the district is more of the Jim Ramstad mold than the Michele Bachmann model.
Meanwhile, the “new 6th” appears to be as safe a Republican district as exists in most places in the country. It likely won’t care if the person holding the seat actually lives in the district. Any parochial issues have played second-fiddle to national conservative ideals for years.