Weather Service wins latest Golden Snowball Challenge round

Update 7:14 p.m. – The National Weather Service posted an updated total after this morning’s post, so the figures have been recalculated. The National Weather Service, itself, won the latest round, correctly predicting a 2″ total. The Golden Snowball Challenge is also looking investigating the exact start time of the storm because Paul Huttner posted a 1-3″ prediction on his blog at 5:38 p.m., updating an earlier 2-4″ prediction. If the snow started after 5:38 p.m., Huttner will also get 10 points.

One other change: Craig Edwards now leads the Senior Division. Craig is also the only member of the Senior Division.

KARE 11’s Sven Sundgaard aced the first Golden Snowball Challenge leg he participated in to take the lead in the seasonal News Cut competition to determine the most consistently accurate predictor of snowfall in the Twin Cities (or, specifically, St. Paul). Under GSC rules (found here), Sundgaard amassed 9 points with his prediction of (average) 1.5″ of snow in the latest snowstorm. The measured total was 1.7″.

The total point leader in the competition, however, is KSTP’s Patrick Hammer. Here are the results of the latest round:

Update 10 a.m. Sunday – Upon further review, Paul Huttner’s 1-3″ prediction (average 2″) was submitted prior to the beginning of the snow. He shares the storm “win” with the National Weather Service.

Weatherperson
Prediction
Difference
Points
National Wx Service
2
0.0
10
Patrick Hammer(KSTP)
1.5
-0.5
8
Sven Sundgaard (KARE)
1.5
-0.5
8
Chris Shaffer (WCCO)
1.5
-0.5
8
Paul Douglas (MinnPost)
2.5
0.5
0
Mike

Augustinyak (WCCO)

3
1.0
-5
Paul Huttner (MPR)
2
0.0
10
Keith Marler (KMSP)
3
1.0
-5
Dave Dahl (KSTP)
3
1.0
-5

And here are the season standings:

Meteorologist
Number of legs
Total Points
Average
Patrick Hammer (KSTP)
3
25
8.3
Sven Sundgaard (KARE)
1
8
8.0
Chikage Windler (KSTP)
1
7
7.0
Mike Fairbourne (WCCO)
1
7
7.0
Paul Huttner (MPR)
4
17
4.3
Jonathan Yuhas (KARE)
2
7
3.5
National Weather Service 
4
4
1.0
Paul Douglas (MinnPost)
3
1
0.3
Erik Maitland (KMSP)
1
0
0.0
Chris Shaffer (WCCO)
2
-2
-1.0
Don Moldenhauer (BMTN)
1
-5
-5.0
Belinda Jensen (KARE)
1
-5
-5.0
Ron Trenda (WCCO)
1
-5
-5.0
Mike Augustyniak (WCCO)
2
-10
-5.0
Dave Dahl (KSTP)
2
-10
-5.0
Keith Marler (KMSP)
3
-18
-6.0
Ian Leonard (KMSP)
2
-16
-8.0
Craig Edwards (MPR)
1
-10
-10.0

Meanwhile, the East Coast is getting his with another big storm. They’re making a particularly big deal about it in Washington, As much as we might be inclined to giggle, they have a right to. If predictions hold true, the region will have accumulated more snow this year than the Twin Cities.

  • Craig

    I need more at bats! Bob, do you think you could start a Seniors division?

  • Bob Collins

    Craig:

    Send me your ranges per storm directly to bcollins@mpr.org (this goes for other meteorologists, too) and I’ll include you in more.

  • Seems shady that the National Weather Service gets to win and be the scorekeeper…

  • Bob Collins

    Actually, I presume the St. Paul observation — posted on the NWS site — was not taken by the NWS, but by a weather spotter.

    Next year, I’m changing the rules to go make the official observation *my* backyard deck.

  • Keith

    hurrmmm … I sense a conspiracy!! lol!!

    Not sure where you’re pulling my forecasts … I noted some “errors” from the Christmas results … but I reviewed my published web text & phone texts from Thurs/Fri & I was touting the 1″-3″, as well …!!

    Great idea with this, by the way … this is cool to see!

    -Keith Marler

    Fox 9

  • Bob Collins

    Most forecasts I get off the Web site. But I don’t save screenshots or anything. did you have a 2-4″ prediction anywhere along the line. anyway, an official challenge will likely be looked upon favorably by the Golden Snowball Committee, should it ever wake up.

  • Thanks for doing this, Bob.

    Craig, I still haven’t forgiven you and Paul Douglas for your spin after the Xmas-snowstorm-that-wasn’t.

    I don’t mind blown forecasts. But like Watergate, it’s the cover-up that’s the real crime.

    We have a support group here in Northfield that’s helping us get over the emotional trauma of these snowstorms that don’t materialize. Lots of Vikings fans attend.