Bob CollinsNow that we’re about done with Al Franken’s bid for the U.S. Senate in 2008, an area political blog is turning its attention to his 2014 re-election bid. Admit it now: You’ve thought about whether the recount would politically damage the winner, right?
Eric Ostermeier at Smart Politics concludes that it likely won’t be an issue. He says only 2 of 10 senators who won close elections in Minnesota, went on to lose the next election. He calc ulates Franken’s re-election chances at 67%, again based on history.
On the other hand, Ostermeier doesn’t calculate the odds of Franken getting some significant opposition from his own party. And it’s worth noting that three of the last four Minnesota senators coming off close races did not serve a second term. The list includes Mark Dayton, who was considered very vulnerable before he decided not to run for re-election.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver doesn’t figure Franken’s 2014 GOP competition to be Norm Coleman:
Let’s be frank: Norm Coleman doesn’t have much of a future in electoral politics. Defeated Presidential candidates sometimes have nine lives, but defeated Senatorial candidates rarely do, and in his career running for statewide office, Coleman has lost to a professional wrestler, beaten a dead guy, and then tied a comedian. He doesn’t have much to lose by fighting this to its bitter conclusion. But it’s hard to envision how he’ll come up with enough ballots to overtake Franken.
