Franken’s 2014 chances

Now that we’re about done with Al Franken’s bid for the U.S. Senate in 2008, an area political blog is turning its attention to his 2014 re-election bid. Admit it now: You’ve thought about whether the recount would politically damage the winner, right?

Eric Ostermeier at Smart Politics concludes that it likely won’t be an issue. He says only 2 of 10 senators who won close elections in Minnesota, went on to lose the next election. He calc ulates Franken’s re-election chances at 67%, again based on history.

On the other hand, Ostermeier doesn’t calculate the odds of Franken getting some significant opposition from his own party. And it’s worth noting that three of the last four Minnesota senators coming off close races did not serve a second term. The list includes Mark Dayton, who was considered very vulnerable before he decided not to run for re-election.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver doesn’t figure Franken’s 2014 GOP competition to be Norm Coleman:


Let’s be frank: Norm Coleman doesn’t have much of a future in electoral politics. Defeated Presidential candidates sometimes have nine lives, but defeated Senatorial candidates rarely do, and in his career running for statewide office, Coleman has lost to a professional wrestler, beaten a dead guy, and then tied a comedian. He doesn’t have much to lose by fighting this to its bitter conclusion. But it’s hard to envision how he’ll come up with enough ballots to overtake Franken.

  • Nathan Goettsch

    I believe the political future of either candidate will depend greatly on what further legal action is pursued and by whom, what transpires during and from the conclusion of said legal action, and then the record of candidate during the next 3 years until their campaign season comes back.

    When that time arrives it will depend more on who they are running against in 2012 and how they have taken their name from the mud which has been slung and brought it back into good standing.

    Also, I would add the loser of the lawsuit and final decision of the Minnesota Senatorial race will have minuscule hope of returning to the political world, due to the harsh view this election has had.

    I wish good luck to both candidates, though I believe Al Franken is our true elected official.

  • http://www.trailblz.com brian hanf

    OMG – I never thought of Coleman like Nate Silver did “Coleman has lost to a professional wrestler, beaten a dead guy, and then tied a comedian”

  • c

    2014?

    who cares?!!

    there are many problems/messes to be solved in the here and now.

    I agree with Nathan, in that I believe in Al Franken.

  • Bob Collins

    //there are many problems/messes to be solved in the here and now.

    See the “Coleman sighting” thread.

  • I can see through it

    Glad to see Norm will continue the fight. Go Norm ! The dems in this state continue to create this facade of Franken’s success. Finding ballots in car trunks, double counting ballots, and manufacturing deadlines for completion, WOW and we have allowed this to get this far? Norm – sue them and more importantly – expose them.

  • Chris

    Oh, man, I don’t know. You couldn’t really have predicted the 2008 outcome in January of 2003. A lot of things can happen, and it depends on who the challenger is and what the national mood is, and all the rest.

  • c

    @ Posted by Bob Collins

    +

    @ Posted by I can see through it

    Take a look at all of the insanity that has taken place in the last 8 years. Government action that took place based on fear and paranoia. Take a look at what has manifested from this action/intention.

    I have no problem waiting a day or two, maybe a week, maybe more to hear Al’s plan/direction to move. It might take some time but I trust him.

    Patience Bob, Patience.