Why Obama leads McCain in Minnesota

Bob CollinsBob Collins Oct 30, 2008
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Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute released the latest presidential poll in Minnesota today, and now I’ve uploaded the specifics of the poll here (pdf format).

The bottom line:

  • The economic downturn and a backlash against President Bush is behind the big numbers for Obama.
  • Democrats are energized for Obama. Republicans are lukewarm for McCain. I recall, for example, a comment by Rep. Phil Krinkie to Gary Eichten when all of the Republicans were staying on message during the Republican National Convention. Krinkie said Minnesota delegates weren’t that thrilled about McCain.
  • Obama grabs “the middle”
  • Obama has won over white voters — a fairly obvious conclusion, isn’t it?
  • The “Joe the Plumber” strategy isn’t working.
  • The “faith vote,” which propelled George Bush in 2004 is swinging to Obama. McCain still has the evangelicals and “born agains,” but Catholics and Protestants are going Obama’s way. In 2004, Bush had an 83-point lead among “white conservative Protestants” in exit polls here. But even McCain’s support among evangelicals — though still considerably more than Obama’s — has slipped recently.