Creighton’s MN economy report: positives but slow job growth

We’re going to be deluged this week with Minnesota budget and economy news. The newest state unemployment data comes out Tuesday morning.

Also that morning comes the state’s newest economic forecast.

It’s likely that the data in both of those reports will line up with what Creighton University’s very good economic analysis told us today about Minnesota.

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Creighton creates a “leading economic indicator” for a bunch of Midwest states, including Minnesota. It’s based on a survey of business supply managers and a score of 50 or higher indicates expected growth.

Minnesota’s score rose to 57.4 in February, up from 51.4 in January, survey data released today show. It’s the seventh straight month indicating growth.

And that’s the good news. The bad news is that Minnesota’s lost nearly 30,000 manufacturing jobs “or more than 8.5 percent of its manufacturing base,” Creighton economist Ernie Goss notes.

“For the second quarter of 2010, based on our surveys, I expect minimal manufacturing job gains and very modest overall job gains.”

That’s likely the message we’ll get tomorrow in the state’s economic forecast and jobless data: Worst is over, brighter days ahead for people with jobs. But for people that need jobs it will be slow going. Minnesota employment will not come roaring back in 2010.

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