PoliGraph: Fact-checking the State of the State
In his fifth State of the State address on Thursday, Gov. Mark Dayton repeated a lot of claims about the state’s economy and future.
PoliGraph put three of those claims to the test and found two of the three to be correct.
Here’s Dayton’s first claim about Minnesota’s economy.
“More Minnesota businesses are expanding. So, more Minnesotans are working. They are earning more money, which means they are paying more taxes.”
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Dayton’s talking about the state’s most recent budget forecast. The report showed that more Minnesotans are working and earning higher wages, when not adjusted for inflation. That means more income and sales tax revenue for the state, which is a big driver behind Minnesota’s $1.9 billion budget surplus.
PoliGraph rated a similar claim from Dayton accurate in the past, and we’re sticking with that rating.
Dayton went on to talk about how Minnesota’s employment rate stacks up against the rest of the nation.
“Our unemployment rate is an unusually low, 3.7%.... Minnesota is the only state in the nation, whose employment rate for 25-54 year-olds in 2014 exceeded its pre-recession level in 2007.”
Dayton is correct that the state’s unemployment rate is 3.7 percent – lower than the national average of 5.5 percent.
He’s also referring to a study from the Pew Charitable Trusts that compared 2014 employment rates in every state with employment rates prior to the recession. The study focused on 25-54 year-olds because those are considered prime working years, according to Pew’s website.
Dayton is mostly correct that Minnesota is the only state in the nation that has an employment rate that’s higher than before the economy tanked. But the rate change is only slightly better than before the recession, and the Pew study doesn’t consider it statistically significant.
Lastly, Dayton touched on the state’s education funding.
“A rank of 24th in per-pupil K-12 education expenditures by a state with the 11th highest per-capita income means that at least thirteen other states are making greater financial efforts than we are to educate our children.”
Back in January, Dayton made a similar claim about Minnesota’s per-pupil spending, but Poligraph gave it an inconclusive because the most recent numbers available are a few years old. That means the latest rankings don’t include Dayton’s more recent investments in education, like funding for all-day kindergarten.
This claim comes with another important note: Minnesota actually ranks 15
th
in per capita income according to the latest Census data. A few years ago, Minnesota ranked 11
th
in the nation.
Because data about education spending per pupil still haven’t been updated, PoliGraph will rate this version of Dayton’s claim inconclusive as well.