5 takeaways from the new fundraising reports

WASHINGTON -- As any observer of politics knows, the money race is a never-ending component of politicians' work. After spending a few hours poring over the recently-filed Federal Election Commission reports, here are a few thoughts about what this latest round of fundraising meant for Minnesota candidates.

1. Democrats raised more money than Republicans did in the second quarter but that means less than you think. 

Democratic congressional candidates in Minnesota raised at least $4.8 million in the most recent quarter compared to Republicans' $2.8 million. Seems like a huge edge, right? But most of that edge comes Sen. Al Franken's enormous $3.3 million haul.

Subtract Franken's money (and, to even things out, the $1.1. million raised by Franken's Republican challenger, Mike McFadden), and Minnesota's U.S. House Democrats actually trailed House Republicans, $1.5 million to $1.7 million despite holding five of the state's eight U.S. House seats.

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2. Candidates' totals in the 7th and 8th Districts don't tell the whole story

Democrats are playing defense in the state this year as Republicans aggressively target the 7th and 8th District seats occupied by Collin Peterson and Rick Nolan. Peterson and Nolan hold cash on hand advantages over GOP challengers Torrey Westrom and Stewart Mills. Mills actually outraised Nolan in the 2nd quarter.

Faced with tighter races than either had initially expected, both incumbents have stepped up their fundraising. But here's the thing: if either race is at all close, outside spending by the party committees and super PACs is going to swamp the districts and outspend the candidates by considerable margins. In 2012, groups on the left and right spent more than $9 million in the 8th District where Nolan defeated one-term Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack.

Party committees and outside groups on both sides have already reserved millions in TV ad time across the state this fall though they may not follow through on all of the plans if any of the races appear to become less competitive.

3. Speaking of super PACs...groups focused on the U.S. Senate race remain on the sidelines

There are pro- and anti-Al Franken super PACs this cycle. On Franken's side of the ring is the WIN Minnesota Federal PAC which raised $365,000 in the most recent quarter and has a little more than $700,000 in the bank (the WIN Minnesota PAC may also step in to defend Nolan's House seat). The Republican super PAC, the Heartland Campaign Fund, raised $113,000 (most of which comes from one donor) and has just under $100,000 in cash.

A quick campaign finance law refresher for those of you who don't follow this stuff obsessively: unlike a candidate's regular campaign, super PACs can raise unlimited amounts from donors but aren't allowed to "coordinate" their efforts with the campaign. Of course, the pro- and anti-Franken super PACs are run by Democratic and Republican political operatives who have close ties to the respective camps so the groups probably have a good sense of what sort of assistance the campaigns need.

But unlike states with high-profile Senate races, such as Arkansas or North Carolina, neither PAC is spending significant money just yet. It's likely the PACs will remain relatively dormant unless the Senate race appears to tighten.

4. Spend early, spend heavily

Campaigns aren't waiting until the fall to dump their money into TV ads. Despite raising a record amount this election cycle, Franken's campaign actually saw its cash on hand decline by a million dollars. Why?  Because the campaign launched a TV ad campaign to re-introduce Franken and his work in the Senate to voters while also spending heavily on building a field organization to turn out voters for Franken and down the ballot for other Democratic candidates.

The same story holds in House races. In the 8th District, Republican Stewart Mills raised $338,000 but spent $403,000, much of it also on an ad campaign designed to boost his name recognition. Mills filled the gap by lending his campaign more than $120,000. Another big spender is 5th District Democrat Keith Ellison, whose campaign raised $352,000 but spent $385,000.

While he's considered a safe bet for re-election in his Minneapolis-based seat, Ellison has long focused on building a campaign organization that boosts voter turnout in the state's most reliably Democratic district in order to affect statewide races.

5. Michele Bachmann is still raising money

It's been more than a year since Michele Bachmann announced that she would not run for another term to represent the 6th District. That has not stopped the Republican congresswoman's political action committee from continuing to fill inboxes across the country with email asking for donations in order to support conservative candidates this fall and generally oppose Democrats and President Obama.

But she's not spending much yet. In the most recent quarter, Bachmann's PAC raised almost $45,000 from donors and gave just $5,000 to one candidate, Tom Emmer, the endorsed Republican running to replace her.