Straw poll winners embrace frontrunner status
A day after 14,000 Republicans statewide cast ballots in a precinct caucus night straw poll, the winners say their victories are a sign they should be the party's candidates in November. Not surprisingly, the candidates who finished behind them are downplaying the results of the non-binding poll.
Former state Rep. Marty Seifert was the top choice for governor over five other candidates. State Sen. Julianne Ortman won the survey for U.S. Senate over five other Republicans.
Seifert has been in this position before. Four years ago, he won the straw poll of the 20,000 Republicans who attended precinct caucuses. This year, Seifert also got top honors with 28 percent of the vote. But Seifert is hoping this year's victory will produce a different result.
"I would like them to be looking at me as their candidate. It's all about momentum and it is about endurance," he said.
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In 2010, Seifert had momentum heading out of precinct caucuses, but he didn't have the endurance and lost the endorsement to Tom Emmer. This year, Seifert is taking a different approach. He said his campaign is less scripted, and he hasn't ruled out running in the primary if party delegates endorse another candidate. Disregarding the wishes of those delegates has been considered toxic for any Republican running for statewide office. But Seifert thinks times have changed.
"I believe that most Republicans are looking for a winner," he said. "Someone who can pull off that trifecta that I've always talked about: Getting the endorsement, winning the primary and winning the general election. I think we're best suited to do that."
State Sen. Dave Thompson finished 3 percentage points behind Seifert in the straw poll. He said he's pleased with his showing, especially because Seifert has experience with the delegates.
"We certainly understand that Marty has significant name recognition," Thompson said. "He's been a politician in this state since he was 24 years old, and he built these relationships running for governor four years ago. So we didn't really know how it was going to come out."
Thompson intends to abide by the party endorsement. So will Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who finished third in the straw poll. Johnson said he thinks the endorsement is still important to the most active members of the party.
"The conventional wisdom has been that it was going to be a race between Thompson and me, and I think it will be in the end," Johnson said. "We are the only two who have agreed to abide by the endorsement and I think that matters a lot to the activists."
Two other candidates, Kurt Zellers and Scott Honour, finished behind "undecided" in the straw poll. They both have said they intend to run in a primary regardless of their showing at the state party convention in May.
In the race to see who challenges DFL Sen. Al Franken, Julianne Ortman picked up support from 31 percent of the Republican caucus goers who cast ballots. Ortman characterized her victory as "decisive." She also said the results are a good sign that she can win the party endorsement and the party primary in August.
"It says a lot, not just about how we're faring in the endorsement process, but also with that kind of numbers in terms of turnout," she said. "It really does suggest statistically a good poll sampling of primary voters too."
The primary matters because Mike McFadden says he'll run in the GOP primary regardless of whether he wins the party endorsement. McFadden finished second in the straw poll with support from 22 percent of those surveyed. McFadden's campaign didn't make him available for an interview Wednesday, but he said on caucus night that's he thinks he's the best candidate to challenge Franken.
"We’re going to continue to work hard and it’s a combination of getting out to the grassroots, making sure we have the resources to run a winning campaign," McFadden said. "I’m really happy where we’re at right now. We’re just starting to hit our stride."
McFadden holds a sizable fundraising lead over Ortman. He has $1.7 million in the bank - nearly seven times more than the amount Ortman raised in all of 2013. But Ortman said her straw poll victory will help her raise money moving forward.
Both candidates will need it, since Al Franken is stockpiling cash. Franken had $4.8 million banked for his campaign at the end of 2013.
Another Republican Senate candidate, St. Louis County Commissioner Chris Dahlberg, said he isn't too concerned about fundraising or the straw poll results at this point. He said he'll spend the next few months introducing himself to delegates.
"Chris Dahlberg is a scrapper," he said. "In the age of the Hollywood and Broadway politics where the four most important qualities are being tall, dark, handsome and a millionaire, I’m none of those. But people who know me know I’m a hard worker."
Dahlberg said he's encouraged by one portion of last night's straw poll: 16 percent of those polled say they're undecided. He said that gives him hope that there is still a chance to convince many potential convention delegates that he is the best candidate in the race.