Bachmann 4th in Iowa Poll; trails Cain, Romney, Paul

Ten weeks before the Iowa caucuses, Republican presidential hopeful Rep. Michele Bachmann is in fourth place in the closely-watched Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, released tonight.

Bachmann, who trailed one percentage point behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 22 percent support back in June, now has 8 percent support among likely Republican caucus goers, according to the poll.

Her latest numbers reflect other recent polls. According to Real Clear Politics, Bachmann has an average of 7.3 percent support in Iowa based on data from a variety of surveys conducted in the state. Nationally, her average is 3.8 percent.

Bachmann has made clear that winning the Iowa caucuses is a priority, spending much of her time and resources there in recent weeks.

In a powerpoint presentation released by her campaign last month, Bachmann’s campaign manager, Keith Nahigian, said that she “has to win Iowa and move on from there.”

Herman Cain leads the poll with 23 percent support, closely followed by Romney with 22 percent support. Back in June, Cain had only 10 percent support.

With a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, Cain and Romney are in a statistical dead heat.

Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has only 7 percent support, despite his initial popularity nationwide after he announced his candidacy. But his campaign has since floundered; Perry is averaging 7.3 percent support in Iowa, and 10.5 percent nationally, according to Real Clear Politics

Perry is tied for fifth place with Newt Gingrich. Coming in sixth and seventh place are former Sen. Rick Santorum with 5 percent of the vote and John Huntsman with 1 percent.

The poll surveyed 400 likely Republican caucus goers between Oct. 23-26.

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  • Is it fair to say that Gingrich, Paul and Santorum’s numbers have not moved over time but that the others have fluctuated?

    Heck, Romney was at 17% when Perry was at 29% (and Bachmann at 18%).

    IMO, caucuses are totally different than polls … it’s a matter of getting your people to the caucus site and holding them into your camp. Bachmann proved her mettle in Minnesota caucuses and has plenty of endorsements for the faithful, thus it’s surprising that Santorum has held up (it’s a small number but if Bachmann was perceived as the winner, the caucus-talk should have moved them into her camp.) Bachmann must clearly target Santorum and Cain supporters.

    Bachmann’s problem may be that she is not perceived as a winner in that Tea Party group, American Majority President Ned Ryun said that it’s time for Bachmann to quit the presidential race … Iowa caucus-goers may be want to send a message that they do not want Romney and but when 1988 Iowa-caucus winner Pat Robertson states that GOP candidates are getting too extreme, Ms. Bachmann has a problem.

    NOTE : For anyone interested, Ron Paul got 12% placing third … he has loyal caucus-goers so he will hold his supporters, never win a state, but advance his message.

    Lastly, does Ms. Bachmann’s slippage to fourth bother anyone more than Tim Pawlenty … if he had continued on, who knows ?

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  • Sue

    Funny how in the article that was written it did not not mention that the 3rd place finisher was Ron Paul. I kept reading trying to figure out why and where the third place finisher was. I found it was him by reading it in the comments section. He was not mentioned once in the article and every other candidate was. Heck, even the last place finishers were mentioned.

    I am not a Ron Paul supporter at all. I do wonder however why the media continues to ignore his poll numbers? It happens consistently no matter the new organization and their political leanings.

    I also did wonder if Tim P is wondering about his decision to drop out of the race after the Iowa Straw polls.

  • Dylan Liane

    Are we ever going to hear anything about Ron Paul?

    I don’t understand why he is constantly ignored, even here on mpr. I think everyone deserves a fair shake here.

    FYI Ron Paul is the number one recipient of campaign donations from members of the military.

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