Public Policy Polling: Bachmann slips, Perry moves up

With Rick Perry’s entrance into the race, Rep. Michele Bachmann’s lead in Iowa appears to be slipping, according a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling company.

The Texas governor is the favorite among 22 percent of Iowa Republican voters. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is polling at 19 percent, and Bachmann has 18 percent support. When former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who hasn’t declared her candidacy yet, is added to the mix, Bachmann’s support drops to 15 percent.

Despite Bachmann’s strong showing in the Ames Straw Poll, PPP points out that she hasn’t moved up in the ranks since the group surveyed Iowa voters in June; she was in third place then, and she’s in third place now. At the same time, Bachmann’s favorability numbers have dropped since the June PPP poll from 53 percent to 47 percent. The percent of Republican voters who see her in a negative light has climbed from 16 percent to 35 percent.

It’s also worth noting that Perry seems to be stealing some of Bachmann’s far right support. According to the survey, one-third of Iowa Republicans say they are members of the Tea Party, but many of them – about 32 percent – support Perry. About 22 percent support Bachmann.

The survey was conducted among 317 Iowa Republican voters, and has a 5.5 percent margin of error. Read more about the group’s methodology here.

Meanwhile, a separate poll conducted by Gallup shows that President Barack Obama is in a close contest with Romney, Perry, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and Bachmann.

According to the poll, if the elections were held today, Romney would have 48 percent of voter support while Obama would have 46 percent. Perry and Obama would be tied at 47 percent of support, and Obama would just barely lead Paul and Bachmann.

Gallup points out that Obama’s approval rating is around 40 percent – less than the proportion of people who say they would vote for him.

“Obama’s position of rough parity against leading GOP candidates shows that more Americans at the moment say they would vote for Obama than approve of the job he is doing — perhaps a reflection of the continuing lack of a strong front-runner on the Republican side,” the Gallup pollsters wrote in their report.

More about Gallup’s methodology is here.

  • GregX

    This is ludicrous. It would rank a C- in my statistics class for a weak representative sample area. 317 voters in a state that represents a single-digit fraction of the american population, and whose economy is essentially representitive of Iowa … is used as a national bell-weather of a national trend. I think they ought to spend more money and time and collect data from 317 voters (each) in Iowa, New York, California, Texas, Washington State – and get some perspective.

  • eddie ciletti

    I’m one of those people who will vote for Obama even though I am disappointed in his lack of testicular fortitude. Sadly, I kinda feel the same way about NPR / MPR. I fine with ‘no rant no slant,’ but where’s the damn investigative journalism you people used to be good at? The tea-pubs will kill all your federal funding at their first opportunity and you take it just like Obama.

    How about exposing the power of money in our political system???

    Every day there should be a story on the influence of money in our gov’t. How many lobbyists? What do they make? Who pays them? What deals have been cut to compensate the moneyed class for their ‘political contributions.’

    As for the republican presidential hopefuls, what a pitiful bunch!!! The only one who makes any sense is Ron Paul and is is practically persona non grata… Why could that be? Is he not religious enough.?

  • michael doyle

    I agree with eddie ciletti .

    NPR did some coverage of the American Legislative Exchange Council

    Please lets keep that kind of journalism up

    Recommended: Bill Moyers on Plutonomy

  • Steph Prink

    eddie ciletti says it well. Expose the money’d interests in politics and who buys what with what. And lobbyists need to hand-cuffed to keep them from buying votes. I think our leadership will step up to the plate and needs to soon but the right needs to work together for the good of all people and not just their “own kind”.

  • Peter T


    “It would rank a C- in my statistics class for a weak representative sample area. 317 voters in a state that represents a single-digit fraction of the american population (…) is used as a national bell-weather of a national trend.”

    The number of 317 isn’t too bad, if the selection was really random. It is the selection that is the problem, as you probably remember from statistics. It was not the pollsters who declared it a national trend, it was the somewhat incomplete title of the article. The text of the article made it clear that it was Iowa that they had studied – but Iowa is the area where a religious conservative must get lots of votes to stay competitive beyond New Hampshire. If Bachmann’s campaign dies in Iowa, it dies everywhere.

  • Lois Ross

    PUBLIC POLICY POLLS DO NOT INCLUDE RON PAUL. I was just on thw wiki site and all polls are listed by state. THEY HAVE ONLY INCLUDED PAUL IN TX. No other State. the writer of this does not include this in the story???? That is not an honest poll.