PoliGraph: GOP claim doesn’t tell the whole story
While Gov. Mark Dayton tours the state to talk jobs, the Senate Republican Caucus is circulating a flier via Twitter that criticizes what they call Dayton's anti-job administration.
During the legislative session, Dayton wanted to raise taxes on the state's wealthiest, which the GOP said would discourage businesses from hiring.
To make their case, the Republicans say in the flier that, "After cutting taxes and declaring the state 'open for business,' Wisconsin created 12,900 new private-sector jobs in June. ... This represents the largest one-month gain of private-sector jobs in Wisconsin since 2003."
The Senate GOP gets its numbers right, but the job situation in Wisconsin is far more nuanced than the flier lets on.
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The Evidence
It's true that Wisconsin added 12,900 private sector jobs in June - the largest since 2003. In fact, the state's Department of Workforce Development later increased that figure to 14,800 private sector jobs.
These numbers are seasonally adjusted, but economists in Wisconsin point out that many jobs added in June were food service and leisure positions, which tend to disappear once the weather gets colder.
Economists also highlight that in July, the previous gains in the private sector were wiped out when Wisconsin lost 12,500 jobs from nearly all the state's industries.
On the whole, Wisconsin has been gaining jobs since January, 2010, when the state had its lowest post-recession job numbers. But month-to-month numbers are all over the map.
"A big jump up followed by a big jump down means the recovery is still rickety," said Laura Dresser, associate director of the Center on Wisconsin Strategy, a economics think tank.
Wisconsin's job climate reflects national trends, she said. Republican Gov. Scott Walker's administration echoed that observation when the July numbers came out.
If it were specifically Walker's policies at play, job growth would be sustained month-to-month, Dresser added.
That's precisely the point the Senate GOP's flier tries to make: Walker's new tax cuts led to job growth.
While several business-friendly, but relatively small, tax perks were adopted shortly after Walker entered office, they aren't immediate. So it's impossible to say whether they are directly related to the June jobs increase, economists say.
Still, it's possible businesses are hiring based Walker's overall tax platform, said Abdur Chowdhury, chair of the Department of Economics at Marquette University.
"The perception among the business community has been more positive," he said.
The Verdict
It's true that Wisconsin saw substantial job growth in June. But it lost an equal number of job losses the following month, which economists say mean one thing: much like the rest of the nation, Wisconsin's jobs climate is still a roller coaster.
As a result, the GOP flier is misleading.
SOURCES
Senate Republican Caucus flier on Dayton's job record, Aug. 30, 2011
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, State reports a gain of 12,900 private-sector jobs, by John Schmid, July 21, 2011
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel,Wisconsin loses 12,500 private-sector jobs in July, by John Schmid, Aug. 18, 2011
The Department of Workforce Development, June Jobs Report, July 21, 2011
The Department of Workforce Development, July Jobs Report, Aug.18, 2011
Fox News, Channel 6, Governor Scott Walker signs tax cut bill, Jan. 31, 2011
MacIver Institute, Wisconsin's New Jobs Account for More than Half of Nation's Net Gain for June: While Nation Sputters on Jobs, Wisconsin Economy Begins to Hum, July 21, 2011
FactCheck.org, Walker's Tax Cuts, by Eugene Kiely, March 4, 2011
Wisconsin Budget Project, Live by jobs report, die by jobs report, Aug. 18, 2011
Center on Wisconsin Strategy, Wisconsin saw job growth in June, but the state is still suffering, June 2011
Email exchange, Chris Van Guilder, spokesman, Senate Republican Caucus, Aug. 30, 2011
Email exchange, John Dipko, spokesman, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Aug. 31, 2011
Interview, Laura Dresser, Center on Wisconsin Strategy, Aug. 31, 2011
Interview, Abdur Chowdhury, Marquette University, Aug. 30, 2011
Interview, Andy Feldman, BadgerStat, Aug. 30, 2011