Bachmann in Iowa: Can she win?

GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann is in Iowa today to speak at a fundraiser for an anti-tax group. It's Bachmann's first visit to Iowa since she announced that she's mulling a possible run for president.

Bachmann is joining a crowded field of Republicans who are said to be considering a possible run. But here's a question. Can she win Iowa?

Let's take a look at the positives and the negatives.

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Positives:

1)

She can build a grassroots network of supporters. Bachmann first entered politics in 2000 when she decided to challenge a sitting Republican state Senator. She won the GOP endorsement, the primary and the general election by mobilizing a base of supporters who opposed the Minnesota Department of Education's Profile of Learning standards. Since then, Bachmann has mobilized social conservatives because of her opposition to same sex marriage. She has most recently become a darling of the Tea Party for her tough fiscal talk. That means she has an army of supporters ready and willing to work for her.

2)

She can raise money. Bachmann has proven that she can raise money. Take a look at her most recent Congressional campaign. She broke records for the amount raised and spent by a candidate for Congress in Minnesota. She has built a national network of supporters through national speaking engagements, TV and radio talk show appearances and the internet. Bachmann has sent out fundraising requests on e-mail lists that belong to conservative groups like Human Events. Her tele-townhalls bring in money. She is also disciplined to always mention her website or Facebook page whenever she's on TV or radio. All of those efforts mean tons of small dollar donations that every politician covets.

3)

She's dynamic. Watch the crowds when they watch Bachmann speak. No one engages in small talk with their neighbors. They don't look at their mobile phones. Everyone is transfixed on what she says. Some even nod in agreement. That's star power few politicians enjoy.

4)

Steve King. This is Bachmann's not so secret weapon. I'm told that a large number of the GOP delegates come from western Iowa. GOP Rep. Steve King's congressional district is on the western part of the state. Bachmann and King are close friends. They have joined forces in their opposition to the federal health care law. Bachmann has also showered King with praise jokingly calling him stunning on the House floor. She has also suggested that King run for president. Bachmann would pick up some serious traction if King backs a White House bid.

5)

She's from Iowa. Bachmann grew up in Waterloo, Iowa. She knows the state and knows the politics. That means she knows things other candidates have to learn like how to pronounce Ankeny. Bachmann will also have instant credibility when talking face to face with Iowans (a key to garnering support before the caucuses). It's no mistake what she told the National Review prior to her trip:

"I am the seventh generation of Iowans in my family. We came as early pioneers, some the first people that tilled the soil, and I love these people that built the country; I've read the history of my family. I want to go there and remind them that we could lose what we've built up very easily. We could lose our dominance in the world."

The Negatives

1)

Bachmann is extremely polarizing. She makes controversial statements that turn off independent minded voters. Iowans pride themselves on helping pick a winner. Will they take a chance on someone would could turn off the middle of the road voters that are needed in a general election?

2)

The polls. A recent Public Policy Polling poll shows President Obama beating Bachmann in a national head to head match up 51-33. That's not good for a candidate who will need the make the case to GOP voters that Obama should be a one-term president.

3)

She's wrong. I did a story today that takes a look at some of Bachmann's misstatements, exaggerations and completely wrong assertions. Bachmann will no longer be one of 435 if she decides to run for president. That means media organizations and fact-checkers (like PolitiFact) will comb over her past statements and her future ones to see whether she's telling the truth.

4)

She's not well loved by the GOP establishment. This could both help and hurt Bachmann among GOP Caucus goers. But it's clear that GOP House leadership isn't endeared with her. Bachmann tried to run for House Leadership Chair after she won reelection in November. She dropped her bid after House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and other members of the leadership team backed her opponent. Bachmann has traditionally been a politician who does things her own way. That doesn't always sit well with a large caucus of ambitious members. But that also helps her outsider status if she mounts a serious run.

Question of the Day:

What do you think of Bachmann's chances?