KSTP-TV says gov race is a toss-up

A KSTP-TV/Survey USA poll shows a dead heat between Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer. The poll, taken between October 24th and October 27th, shows Dayton leading Emmer by one percentage point. Dayton received 39 percent support from those polled. Emmer received 38 percent support. IP candidate Tom Horner received support from 13 percent of those polled.

Here’s the full methodology.

  • Jon

    I find it odd that they are the only poll (at least that I know of) showing there are “two percent more Republicans than Democrats” in Minnesota. I can see how that’d be nationally, but it feels off for Minnesota with other polls showing the opposite to be true. Is it wishful thinking by the station owner/big-republican donor or a bias in how they calculate a “likely” voter or is it accurate? Obviously, I don’t know, but it generates a large grain of salt to take these numbers with, given that they’re off from all the others.

  • Chuck

    Jon….that is the difference between Democrats and the rest of the world. Democrats worry about how it feels and everyone else worries about how it is.

  • Jon

    Chuck, I’m guessing that felt good to you to write, but I think your mentality is ironically the same one used in conducting the adjustment to KSTP’s poll. It isn’t backed by any science; it just chooses to believe it is right because it wants to. My very point is that I wanted to know “how it is,” not to have some baseless statement that it was okay to skew their poll because that’s the way the nation is going these days. Polls that don’t account for local variables are not reliable polls.

    If there is reason to believe Minnesota now has a Republican lean, than Survey USA has a decent reputation otherwise and I’ll put some belief in their numbers. But, they seem to be the only ones with a survey that shows this bias, which is odd if it were true.

    I know how I feel, what I was hoping for is some science-based justification for a decision that radically alters the poll’s finding. Without it, I don’t think any of us can know “how it is.” (except the all-knowing Chuck, of course).

  • Jamie

    Any poll coming from the obviously Republican KSTP (it’s not just their boss, it’s their news and public affairs coverage) is not to be trusted. I haven’t read about their methodology yet, but I’ve heard them twist and spin lots of news to fit their right-wing outlook, so I would expect the same about their polls.