David Wasserman, who tracks Congressional races for the highly respected Cook Political Report told Minnesota Public Radio News this morning he doesn’t see much chance of DFLer Tarryl Clark unseating U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann this year. Here’s what he told Cathy Wurzer on our Morning Edition program today:
The tragedy for Democrats in this election is that they could run the best campaign they’ve ever run against Michele Bachmann and still come up a few points short. I don’t dismiss the possibility that this [Bachmann’s victory] could be within 10 points. I think Tarryl Clark is one of the best, most talented Democratic challengers in the country. I don’t have a doubt that she would win if she were running in 2008 in that kind of political environment. Now that we’re in 2010, we have to look at the district and say [that] the most Republican district in Minnesota isn’t going to be the one that switches parties. I think no matter how many voters have reservations about the personal style of Michele Bachmann, her trips out of town to support like minded candidates around the country, they still want to send President Obama a message more as long as they’re a Republican or Republican-leaning voter in the 6th Congressional District.
When asked for reaction, Clark’s spokeswoman Carrie Lucking says people in the 6th District are “looking for change and a new voice” and that it’s not just an anti-Democratic wind blowing among the electorate. “What folks don’t understand is the wind is actually an anti-incumbent wind,” she said.
Lucking says they “feel extremely confident and comfortable with their chances.”
Here’s Wasserman’s analysis of that and other races around Minnesota: