Projection: Minnesota will lose a Congressional seat

The Census Bureau released its 2009 population estimates last night and it shows Minnesota gaining in population. But the state may not be growing quickly enough to keep all eight congressional seats.

How close is it?

Kimball Brace with Election Data Services said the estimates from July, 2009 show Minnesota keeping all eight seats. But he’s predicting that Minnesota will lose the seat when the Census is taken next year. Brace is basing that estimate on the migration patterns of states:

Minnesota’s State Demographer is crunching his own numbers and should have something later today. I’ll post his info here.

UPDATE:

Minnesota State Demographer Tom Gillaspy projects that Minnesota wil miss keeping its eight Congressional seats. He said Missouri will receive the last seat apportioned, with Minnesota missing by about 1,100 people.

In a news release, Gillaspy wrote that “the difference between Califorinia, Texas, Missiouri and Minnesota for the last three seats is about 2,200 people, which is well within the potential estimating error.

“Basically, this is a dead heat,” Gillaspy said in the news release.

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