National pundits say Coleman has a fight on his hands

CQ and The Washington Post's The Fix both are reporting this morning that GOP Sen. Norm Coleman's reelection is proving more difficult. CQ changed the rating to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican. The Fix kept the race as its 7th most competitive but said Coleman's campaign has faced some challenges in the past few weeks.

Here's the CQ analysis:

Minnesota Senate (New: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Republican)

The Minnesota contest features idiosyncratic nominees in both major parties. Republican incumbent Coleman is a former Democrat who in 2002 very narrowly defeated former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, who stepped in as a replacement after two-term Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone, a liberal icon, died in a plane crash just days before the election. Democratic challenger Franken, a well-known comic, is a longtime liberal activist making his first bid for public office. Throw in an unusually strong third contender in Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley -- briefly an appointed senator following Wellstone's death in 2002 -- and all the ingredients for an unpredictable race were in place.

Even so, the trajectory of the race has had an unusual number of zigs and zags. Franken, a former Saturday Night Live writer/performer and former Air America radio host, nearly saw his campaign implode this summer when critics raised questions about some of his racier writings during his career as a satirist. He also faced some bad publicity about back taxes.

But Coleman also has faced flak over allegations that he got a sweetheart rental deal from a lobbyist for his Washington, D.C., residence, and more recently over whether he had received and failed to report gifts of expensive clothing.

Yet the precipitating event in Coleman's recent slip in polls appears to be his vote in support of the controversial financial industry "bailout" legislation last week. A Rasmussen poll released Thursday found that Franken led Coleman 43 percent to 37 percent while Barkley took 17 percent. A recent poll by Minnesota Public Radio and the Humphrey Institute at University of Minnesota showed Franken leading Coleman 41 percent to 37 percent, while Barkley got 14 percent.

Third-party candidates often siphon anti-incumbent votes from challengers. But in this race, Barkley is gaining support from both parties because of the unpopularity of Coleman's vote on the bailout measure, said Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. "Republicans are revolting against Coleman," he said.

Jacobs said that Barkley's performance in polling also indicates voters from both parties are looking for alternatives. "It reflects both the high unfavorables for both Coleman and Franken and the defections of both independents and Democrats and Republicans from their headliners," he said.

Here's what the Fix says:

7. Minnesota (R): The last 14 days have not been kind to Sen. Norm Coleman. Just when it looked like he was building a small but significant edge over comedian Al Franken (D), the economic crisis hit -- bringing the race back to dead even. And now Coleman is caught up in allegations over whether or not he accepted suits from a contributor -- a controversy that caused, perhaps, the most awkward press conference in the history of politics earlier this week. Independent candidate Dean Barkley remains the x-factor in the contest; he is gaining support by the day but who does his rise hurt more? (Previous ranking: 7)

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