Charlie Cook: 60 Senate seats for Dems is possible
Political analyst Charlie Cook is now saying it's possible for the Democrats to reach sixty senate seats. He cites Minnesota's senate race as a reason:
Six other Republican seats are now basically toss-ups -- those held by Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Gordon Smith of Oregon, John Sununu of New Hampshire, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi, plus the seat that Wayne Allard is giving up in Colorado. The GOP's prospects in Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina have dimmed a bit in the past month or two. The GOP candidates are trailing by a little in New Hampshire and Colorado; running about even in Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina; and polling a bit ahead in Mississippi.
Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky have solid leads but spirited challengers. Both are still favored, but McConnell's margin of victory could be much smaller than commonly expected. In the only contest where a Democratic seat is in jeopardy, incumbent Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is running the best Senate race of her career and so far appears to be on track to win a third term.
It seems farfetched that Republicans would lose Stevens, Sununu, Dole, Coleman, Smith, and Wicker, in addition to relinquishing the even more endangered open seats in Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado, but a net loss of nine seats -- or eight if they topple Landrieu and keep Collins and McConnell in office -- is no longer implausible. In 2006, the odds against a six-seat Republican loss were equally strong, but it happened.
History shows, moreover, that close Senate races tend to break in the same direction, as they did two years ago.
The bottom line is that things have gotten worse for Senate Republicans over the past few weeks, so much worse that a magnitude of losses that seemed impossible just a few months ago now seems entirely possible.
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