The Star Tribune poll is out and shows that Mike Hatch has a 9-percentage-point lead over Tim Pawlenty. The last time the poll was conducted, the race was basically even. Peter Hutchinson came in at 7 percent. He’s not in a competitive state, but the good news for the IP is he’s, so far, got the vote to keep the IP considered a “major party.”
Now let me be clear here: I am not a political scientist. I can’t dissect this methodology from a statistics expertise. I can’t tell you this poll is right or wrong. What I can tell you is what I feel, what my gut instinct tells me. Up to now, it’s served me well.
I listen to the call-in talk shows, I even set the clock to get up and listen to the overnight talk shows on AM radio, I talk to people, I bend over in my chair at a restaurant to hear what people are saying, I listen to conversations at bus stops and anywhere else…where…there is one. I can’t detect that Tim Pawlenty is in this much trouble.
That’s not to conclude that he’s not. I’m just saying, the usual barometers that usually give me a clue that something’s up, are either not working… or they are. I won’t know until Election Day.
These numbers could mean that Republicans are the ones turning on him — there’s a few that aren’t all that happy with his breaking of the “no new taxes” pledge (spare me the “fee” talk, just because the DFLers agreed to call it a fee when approving the legislation, doesn’t mean that the voters are similarly obliged, or interested in the term.), but where are those voters going to go? Hatch? C’mon. And, besides, the same paper just wrote a story that what support exists for Klobuchar, isn’t adding up to support for Hatch. So something doesn’t add up there.
I do know this, however: if this poll is right and Pawlenty really is in this much trouble: the Republicans in the Legislature are in a huge mess.