Iraq as the political third rail?
It's a killer issue, right? Support the war in Iraq, and you lose an election. That's the increasing vibe that seems to be distributed as we get closer to election day.
But Michael Barone says "not so fast."
Consider these results from the University of Cincinnati's most recent poll in Ohio. Ohio is a pretty good bellwether: It voted 51 to 49 percent Bush in 2004, while the country as a whole voted 51 to 48 percent. And if there is any Bush '04 state in which the Republicans are in trouble this year, it's Ohio.
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Barone is way smarter than me when it comes to politics, and I acknowledge that he may be right here. But he may be wrong too. It's dangerous to assume that one poll that says something one may be inclined to agree with, is the data that's correct.
That said, it's not correct to dismiss the University of Cincinnati poll out of hand if one is not inclined to accept it in the first place.
I do know this: something doesn't feel "right" about the "prevailing wisdom." Of course, prevailing wisdom seldom feels right to me. But as we get closer to Election Day, my gut says there's something out there that nobody -- no media, no blogger, no candidate, maybe even no voter -- has picked up on the antenna.
Or maybe it's just Twins fever.