Barone: 6th leans Bachmann
Via KvM, I'm alerted to the fact that Michael Barone has made his predictions in U.S. House races.
Using the 50 House races in play on Real Clear Politics, he sees the 6th leaning Bachmann. He also sees the 1st leaning Gutknecht.
One reason I do not see this election as a "wave" is that I think Republicans have a superior turnout program. The samples in most recent polls show a Democratic advantage in party identification—quite different from the 2004 exit poll that showed party identification at 37 percent Republican and 37 percent Democratic. I think there probably has been some shift in party ID since November 2004, but I doubt that it's as great as those polls suggest. In any case, polls are not good at predicting turnout. Some but not all polls show Democrats to be more "interested" or "certain to vote" or "motivated." But responses to those questions have not done a good job at projecting turnout in the past, including November 2004. To get a really good idea of turnout, I think we have to wait for elections—or, rather, for the vote to be counted.
He also figures we won't know who controls the House on election night, a disturbing thought to us all-night types who are loathe to add an all-day to the mix.
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