The approval rating-midterm effect
Daily Kos isn't one of my daily stops but Swing State Project is and SSP caught note of a study with lots of charts and graphs that seem to suggest a correlation between a president's approval rating and the midterm performance of his party.
Now, keep in mind in the comments section, someone points out that the guy who did this really wants to be concentrating on Polynomial matching, not straight line. And also the Y variable may not be Delta. Now, as someone who pointed out the obvious suggested, a Delta vs. approval rating with a 5 percent Polynomial might overfit the data. Right?
For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Democrats have such a hard time getting their message out. Can you?
How would a Republican Web site interpret the data? It would say, "we're gonna kick your ..." And folks would nod and say "yep," and go about their day.
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